Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 76616.039562 80949.263909 85287.000141 89951.965481 94823.844183 99758.558347 105131.636447
2025-11-30 69740.888444 76366.926428 83190.114853 90731.856459 98824.524366 107237.912541 116636.304365
2025-12-07 64859.057656 73058.620460 81692.057634 91440.312499 102121.234841 113448.011163 126347.664720
2025-12-14 60622.875904 69943.901246 79944.029012 91438.581367 104252.662506 118065.151775 134045.605867
2025-12-21 57339.289998 67561.533944 78709.772024 91723.654127 106449.142707 122544.927010 141418.031954
2025-12-28 55290.162522 66370.436856 78630.243985 93136.763523 109765.270846 128161.766045 149982.389237
2026-01-04 53288.269307 65079.330292 78300.734663 94140.670998 112513.647032 133063.941705 157694.159930
2026-01-11 51310.367894 63688.767562 77743.556198 94778.358433 114755.450473 137327.250199 164640.466157
2026-01-18 49257.806354 62098.233295 76852.834873 94933.900192 116359.176849 140798.856142 170638.691238
2026-01-25 47437.844701 60692.943782 76097.371022 95171.808594 117995.377984 144262.729077 176602.859179
2026-02-01 45600.988708 59183.449407 75141.941536 95100.880993 119206.661394 147186.194010 181908.759880
2026-02-08 44382.601462 58371.368723 74974.372961 95931.332056 121459.982660 151321.723355 188648.796808
2026-02-15 42727.614894 56973.653409 74059.992496 95832.529210 122588.642375 154135.415591 193860.257045
2026-02-22 41877.448592 56546.596935 74309.066399 97138.777950 125417.659983 158998.905235 201566.179906
2026-03-01 40867.834887 55874.808616 74218.436997 97995.605092 127678.258968 163173.452292 208457.688702
2026-03-08 39526.889720 54729.437971 73490.483601 98017.493104 128876.907583 166038.509153 213755.091995
2026-03-15 38397.155658 53814.823486 73016.212031 98324.486641 130404.798461 169293.749946 219533.186425
2026-03-22 37870.297254 53662.038763 73492.182404 99821.395028 133419.019290 174389.216223 227604.998638
2026-03-29 37184.108479 53271.956162 73641.131423 100884.134535 135878.647770 178803.230299 234856.846967
2026-04-05 36368.111343 52680.165654 73504.223595 101559.026477 137834.184120 182589.011983 241342.927968
2026-04-12 35378.540381 51823.310830 72992.930236 101723.634688 139119.590271 185527.245186 246774.897955
2026-04-19 34472.320780 51050.396690 72566.022593 101975.388816 140500.867763 188580.319124 252359.229075
2026-04-26 33476.773379 50125.118047 71909.618365 101900.335505 141440.006391 191063.151560 257225.128573